A mathematical prognosis modelling of reocclusions in patients with occlusive-stenotic diseases of the main arteries of the infrarenal aorta

Keywords: occlusive-stenotic diseases of the main arteries of the lower extremities, prognostic criteria, mathematical modelling of reocclusion, chronic critical limb ischemia, revascularization.

Abstract

Annotation. Obliterating atherosclerosis the lower extremities vessels often leads to permanent disability and mortality in some cases. Despite the improvement of methods and techniques of endovascular and open operations, nowadays there is still a significant frequency of amputations due to progression of atheroscleroses and various intra- and postoperative complications, such as shunt thrombosis or thrombosis of zone of reconstruction. Therefore, the aim was to research the factors influencing the occurrence of reocclusion after surgery and to develop predictive modeling of the risk of their occurrence with the help of logistic mathematical regression. 100 patients with occlusive-stenotic lesions of the main arteries of the infrarenal aorta by atherosclerotic origin were examined. 50 patients (general group) revealed reocclusion occurred in the early postoperative period, and 50 patients (comparison group) have no reocclusion. The factors influencing the occurrence of reocclusion have been identified, and mathematical prognostic modeling of reocclusions based on logistic regression has been created. It was found that the risk of reocclusion increases significantly with increasing duration of the lesion (b=0.5214, p=0.005), in the presence of complex anatomical conditions (b=3.5080, p=0.034), in the presence of two or more multistory occlusions (b=9.0073, p=0.002), in the presence of technical errors in the intervention process (b=8.0802, p=0.004).

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

[1] Agresti, A. (2013). Categorical Data Analysis. (3rd ed.). Wiley Interscience.
[2] Almasri, J., Adusumalli, J., Asi, N., Lakis, S., Alsawas, M., Prokop, L. J., … & Murad, M. H. (2018). A systematic review and meta-analysis of revascularization outcomes of infrainguinal chronic limb-threatening ischemia. Journal of Vascular Surgery, 68(2), 624-633. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvs.2018.01.066
[3] Bilder, C. R., & Loughin, T. M. (2015). Analysis of Categorical Data with R. Chapman & Hall. CRC 1st Ed. ISBN-13: 978-1439855676
[4] Catalano, M. (1993). Epidemiology of critical limb ischaemia: north Italian data. The European journal of medicine, 2(1), 11-14.
[5] Dinoto, E., Pecoraro, F., Cutrupi, A., Bracale, U. M., Panagrosso, M., & Bajardi, G. (2020). Single staged hybrid approach for multilevel aortic-iliac-femoral-popliteal disease. International Journal of Surgery Case Reports, 77, S166-S169. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijscr.2020.09.018
[6] Jens, S., Conijn, A. P., Koelemay, M. J. W., Bipat, S., & Reekers, J. A. (2014). Randomized Trials for Endovascular Treatment of Infrainguinal Arterial Disease: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis (Part 2: Below the Knee). European Journal of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, 47(5), 536-544. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejvs.2014.02.012
[7] Rosenfield, K., Jaff, M. R., White, C. J., Rocha-Singh, K., Mena-Hurtado, C., Metzger, D. C., … & Scheinert, D. (2015). Trial of a Paclitaxel-Coated Balloon for Femoropopliteal Artery Disease. New England Journal of Medicine, 373(2), 145-153. doi: http://doi.org/10.1056/nejmoa1406235
[8] Shaprynskyi, V., Gupalo, Y., Shved, O., Nabolotnyi, O., & Shapovalov, D. (2018). Treatment of critical limb ischemia in patients with multilevel arterial lesions. Reports of Vinnytsia National Medical University, 22(3), 474-478. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31393/reports-vnmedical-2018-22(3)-16
[9] Shaprynskyi, V., Hupalo, Y., Shved, O., Shamrai-Sas, A.,Nabolotnyi, O., & Shapovalov, D. (2017). Hybrid, endovascular and open surgery in the treatment of critical lower extremity ischemia. Surgery of Ukraine - Khirurhiia Ukraine, 4(64), 507-512/
[10] Shaprynskyi, V., Shaprynskyi, V., & Suleimanova, V. (2021). Endovascular interventions in patients with multilevel steno-occlusive lesions of the infrarenal aortic arteries. EUREKA: Health Sciences, 6, 24-29. https://doi.org/10.21303/2504-5679.2021.002193
Published
2022-03-28
How to Cite
Shaprynskyi, V. V., Shaprynskyi, V. O., & Ocheredko, O. M. (2022). A mathematical prognosis modelling of reocclusions in patients with occlusive-stenotic diseases of the main arteries of the infrarenal aorta. Reports of Vinnytsia National Medical University, 26(1), 95-100. https://doi.org/10.31393/reports-vnmedical-2022-26(1)-18

Most read articles by the same author(s)

1 2 > >>